Jinan Zhuocheng Bio-Tech Co., Ltd.

On April 8 local time, just hours after the temporary US-Iran ceasefire agreement took effect, the Strait of Hormuz was completely closed once again. Multiple oil tankers were forced to turn back, with numerous vessels stranded in nearby waters. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf made it clear that formal negotiations between Iran and the US had not yet begun, and three of the ten ceasefire terms proposed by Iran had been seriously violated, stating that "the foundation for negotiations has been completely destroyed."

According to Iran's Tasnim News Agency, the immediate trigger for this closure was Israel's airstrike on southern Lebanon in the early hours of April 8, which killed at least three people—violating the core ceasefire provision that "no party shall take military action on the Lebanon front." The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps promptly announced the full closure of the strait in response, until Israel halts its military operations and apologizes. The Greek-flagged tanker "AUROURA" made a 180-degree turn near Oman's coast to return, becoming one of the first vessels forced to reroute. Iran's Ports and Maritime Organization also released a safety navigation chart for the strait, warning of anti-ship mines and further intensifying shipping tensions.

As a vital chokepoint handling approximately 20% of global crude oil, 20% of liquefied natural gas, 46% of urea, and 45% of sulfur maritime trade, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will directly drive up international oil prices, shipping freight rates, and fertilizer costs—creating a price transmission chain of "energy-agricultural inputs-feed." Following the announcement, Brent crude futures briefly surged past $95 per barrel, rising over 3% and directly increasing electricity and fuel costs for feed production. Meanwhile, as a major global urea exporter, Iran's strait closure will exacerbate worldwide fertilizer supply shortages, potentially causing urea prices to spike again and subsequently raising planting costs for feed raw materials such as corn and soybeans.

This sudden development is undoubtedly devastating for China's already pressured livestock and aquaculture industry. As of April 8, the national average pig price had fallen to 4.49 yuan per jin (approximately $0.63 per pound), while the industry's average full cost remained in the 6-8 yuan per jin range, leaving farmers in comprehensive losses. The sow inventory stands at 39.61 million heads, exceeding the reasonable regulation threshold by 3.11 million heads—an overcapacity situation unlikely to change in the short term. Market analysis institutions generally believe that if the strait closure exceeds two weeks, domestic feed price increases could reach 5%-8%, further squeezing profit margins and accelerating the exit of small and medium-sized farmers from the market.

Faced with this sudden risk, domestic feed enterprises and farming entities must adopt differentiated response strategies. In the short term, feed companies can reduce cost volatility risks by securing raw material inventories in advance, optimizing formula structures, and signing long-term agreements with upstream suppliers; farming enterprises should strengthen refined management, improve feed conversion rates, and reduce non-essential investments. In the long term, industry experts recommend accelerating the transition toward large-scale, intensive operations while increasing R&D and application of alternative raw materials such as insect protein and single-cell protein—to reduce dependence on traditional soybean and corn imports and build a more resilient feed supply chain system.