Jinan Zhuocheng Bio-Tech Co., Ltd.

2025 marked a year of both pressure and strategic accumulation for China’s active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) export industry. Export value reached USD 42.87 billion, down slightly by 0.3% year-on-year, indicating a plateau phase characterized by “trading price for volume.” Import value reached USD 12.38 billion, up 14.5% year-on-year, with a notable surge in peptide API imports.

Entering 2026, with geopolitical tensions driving up crude oil prices, “anti-involution” policies reshaping the supply side, and supply chain security legislation being implemented in Europe and the United States, the industry logic has fundamentally changed. Chinese API companies are shifting from “low-price competition” toward “compliance-driven dividends,” and 2026 is expected to mark the beginning of a structural price increase cycle.

I. Overall Trend: Export Plateau and Strong Import Growth Coexist

In 2025, China’s total import and export value of APIs and intermediates reached USD 55.25 billion, up 2.7% year-on-year.

• Exports: USD 42.87 billion, down 0.3% YoY
• Imports: USD 12.38 billion, up 14.5% YoY

Import growth significantly outpaced export growth.

From a long-term perspective, exports increased from USD 23.75 billion in 2016 to USD 42.87 billion in 2025, representing a CAGR of 6.8%. However, since 2023, exports have entered a plateau phase with relatively stable scale.

This is mainly due to two factors:

1. Weak global macroeconomic demand;
2. Intensifying competition leading to overall price declines.

Although average export price declines narrowed in H1 2025, the industry still relied on price concessions to maintain market share, resulting in a slight full-year decline of 0.3%.

Meanwhile, imports rose from USD 6.38 billion to USD 12.38 billion, representing a CAGR of 7.6%, higher than export growth.

The acceleration in imports from 2024 to 2025 was driven by rising import prices and volume expansion:

• Average import price of basic chemical intermediates increased to USD 6.1/kg, up 11.1% YoY
• Peptide API imports surged to USD 3.25 billion, up 47.4% YoY

II. Diverging Performance Across Key Product Categories

In 2025, vitamins, antibiotics, and hormones showed differentiated performance.

Vitamins

Vitamin API exports reached USD 3.75 billion, up 8.7% YoY.

In H1 2025, supply disruptions of vitamins A and E from BASF created a temporary export opportunity for Chinese producers, supporting higher prices.

However, in July–August 2025, BASF resumed production of vitamins A and E, leading to a shift in market structure. In Q3, export volumes increased but prices declined significantly. In Q4, average export prices of vitamins A and E fell by 48.9% and 54.3% respectively compared with Q1, returning the industry to a “price-for-market-share” dynamic.

For other vitamins (C, B2, B6, AD3), prices continued to decline, while vitamin B1 and B12 remained relatively stable.

Looking into 2026, crude oil price increases driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions and domestic “anti-involution” policies tightening supply are expected to raise upstream chemical costs. Vitamin API export prices may enter an upward trajectory, with leading firms likely to benefit first.

Antibiotics

Antibiotic API exports reached USD 3.07 billion, down 9.1% YoY, while export volume remained stable at 83,000 tons.

Penicillin APIs, the largest sub-segment, recorded exports of USD 1.13 billion, down 23.8% YoY, representing the main drag on the sector.

Pricing trends show clear downward pressure:

• Penicillin export price fell from USD 29/kg in Q1 to USD 20.5/kg in Q4, a decline of 29.3%
• Cephalosporins and quinolones also declined by 11.6% and 21% respectively in Q4 vs Q1

However, lincomycin, tetracycline, and macrolides achieved export growth of 15.6%, 13.9%, and 8.9% respectively, driven by volume increases.

Entering 2026, prices of 6-APA and penicillin G potassium have already shown bottoming and rebound signals. Combined with cost support and ongoing supply-side consolidation, the antibiotic industry is entering a cyclical recovery phase.

Hormones (Peptide and Non-Peptide APIs)

Global rising prevalence of metabolic diseases such as diabetes and obesity has driven strong demand for insulin analogs and GLP-1 drugs.

In 2025, peptide hormone API exports surged to USD 900 million, up 81.7% YoY, becoming the main growth driver of the hormone segment. Total hormone API exports reached USD 1.83 billion, up 30.4% YoY.

Non-peptide hormone APIs reached USD 930 million, up 2.6% YoY.

This structural shift reflects the explosive demand for metabolic disease therapies globally, making peptides a strategic growth segment for Chinese companies.

III. Trade Structure: Stable but Shifting

Export Markets

In 2025, Asia and Europe remained China’s core export destinations, accounting for 74% of total exports.

• Asia: USD 19.01 billion, +1% YoY
• Europe: USD 12.74 billion, +1.6% YoY
• Africa: +0.4% YoY
• North America: -8.7% YoY
• Latin America: -2.3% YoY
• Oceania: -1.4% YoY

India and the United States remained the top two export markets.

• Exports to India: USD 6.26 billion (+2.1% YoY)
  • Top products: antibiotics, amino acids, hormones
• Exports to the US: USD 4.07 billion (-9.9% YoY)
  • Top products: vitamins, hormones, amino acids

Brazil, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea, and Germany formed the second tier, with export values between USD 1.78–2.01 billion. Russia, Vietnam, and Ireland formed the third tier.

Import Markets

Europe and Asia remained the main sources of API imports.

• Europe: USD 7.33 billion (+19.3% YoY)
• Asia: USD 4.01 billion (+13.1% YoY)

Denmark further consolidated its position as China’s largest import source:

• Imports from Denmark: USD 3.1 billion (+57.1% YoY), accounting for 25% of total imports
• Driven by continuous growth in peptide hormone imports (CAGR 49.9%)

Ireland ranked second, benefiting from multinational pharmaceutical manufacturing clusters, with imports reaching USD 1.44 billion (+25% YoY).

Indonesia became the third-largest source, mainly due to rising glycerol prices, with imports reaching USD 460 million (+72.6% YoY).

Germany, India, Japan, and the US formed the second tier, with import values between USD 680–810 million.

IV. Outlook 2026: Structural Opportunities Emerging

Looking back from mid-2026, 2025 can be viewed as a “preparation and accumulation year.” The real structural shift is unfolding in 2026.

1) Repricing of the Industry

Since early 2026, Middle East geopolitical tensions have pushed crude oil prices higher, driving upstream chemical cost inflation.

Cost transmission has become irreversible. The API industry is shifting from “price-for-volume” competition toward a “cost-driven repricing cycle,” potentially entering a broad-based price increase phase.

2) Policy Restructuring

Domestic “anti-involution” policies and Western supply chain security legislation are jointly reshaping global supply chains.

GMP inspections on Chinese suppliers by US and European regulators have increased significantly, accelerating the exit of low-compliance producers.

Consensus suggests that 2026–2030 will be a structural “golden window” for China’s API exports. However, the dividend will not be universal—only companies with strong compliance systems, technological depth, and supply chain resilience will benefit.

3) Competitive Restructuring

Technologies such as synthetic biology and enzymatic catalysis are accelerating penetration.

High-barrier intermediates such as peptides, ADCs, and prostaglandins are becoming new growth engines.

The number of DMF filings and CEP certifications by Chinese companies continues to rise, reflecting a shift from “capacity export” to “system export.”

Conclusion

Against a backdrop of diversified trade relationships and increasingly complex overseas regulatory environments, China’s API industry in 2026 is no longer a simple price competition game.

It is evolving into a comprehensive competition centered on compliance capability, technological depth, and global supply chain coordination.

Companies that proactively adapt to new rules and build high-barrier product portfolios will gain strategic advantage in the ongoing industry restructuring.